JediKermit's Full Review: Mark Lynas - Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter P...
This review is part of Pambo's Earth Day Writeoff--to get more ideas about how to get Green, read more reviews gathered here: http://www.epinions.com/user-pambo
I believe in man-accelerated climate change. Global Warming is something I was interested in before Al Gore got on his bandwagon, and it's gratifying to see the commensurate acceleration of publicity through books, articles, and television programs that encourage us to change the world by curbing our prodigious appetites for energy. That said, I'm also lazy and stuck in my ways. For example, we bought an SUV a few years back that's a complete gas guzzler, on the assumption that because we go camping at least four times per summer, we "deserve" to have the SUV. After immersing myself in Mark Lynas' "Six Degrees," I'm ready to make a change.
These gas prices aren't helping the pro-SUV crowd any, either.
The full title of Lynas' 2008 book is "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet." Chapter by chapter, he explores how each degree Celsius of an increased global average temperature will change the planet we live on. Starting with One Degree, then Two, Three, etc. through six degrees of climate change--the point that many scholars are saying we'll be at by the end of the 21st Century.
This linear view of how an increasing temperature will change our lives is an interesting and logical one. We won't just wake up one day to a radically different world, but we will start noticing changes. Lynas looks at each continent, and whether it's changes to the plant, animal, or human kingdom, the changes are startling, and in some cases, moving.
Some examples at each degree of change:
One Degree
The Western United States (where I live) would return to a Dust Bowl, this time permanently. The loss of the snowcaps of the mountains means that the natural reservoirs that serve to sustain the human population of the West would disappear, making the already precarious relationship with water a disastrous one. The fabled Snows of Kilimanjaro, which are already disappearing, would be gone forever.
Two Degrees
This surprised me more than some of the other changes in the book, for the two degree point is the point at which the Arctic Icecap would melt, and much of Greenland and Antarctica's glaciers would start to sluice away. Lynas refers to a "tipping point" at which the glaciers and icecaps would no longer refreeze, and going past that point would guarantee a global rise in sea levels, dooming places like Bombay, Bangladesh, and other lowlying cities. That includes New York and Miami. They could be saved at the expenditure of billions (or trillions) of dollars, but we'd essentially be turning each coastal city into another New Orleans--a city largely below sea level, just waiting for disasters to strike.
Three Degrees
The Amazon Rain Forest, and the Amazon River itself, will dissipate and disappear, potentially turning the forest into a constant raging fire in the dry seasons. What that will mean for the planet's oxygen production is uncertain, and it would mean extinction for hundreds of species of plants and animals, many that we haven't even had a chance to discover yet. The Amazon turning into a desert isn't what's happening all over the world, as Northern Europe (North of the Alps) will probably be wetter for much of the year, causing flooding that used to be seen once a century every two or three years.
Four Degrees One study conducted by the United Kingdom and Chinese governments suggests that by the latter third of the 21st Century, if global temperatures are more than three degrees higher than now, China's agricultural production will crash. Yields of staple crops like rice, wheat, and corn will decline by nearly 40 percent, perhaps more if water supplies for irrigation run out. China will face the unenviable task of feeding 1.5 billion much richer people--300 million more than now--on two-thirds of current supplies. In Sudan and other African countries, we're already seeing the results of drought-exacerbated violence--what will happen when a country as large as China goes through the same hunger pangs?
Five Degrees
Much of this chapter explores the human reaction--and the reaction of our governments--to these changes. Could the United States invade Canada in an attempt to have a safe haven for our people? Will Northern Europe accept the refugees from other countries? History has shown what happens in times of need--the Great Depression helped Hitler, Mussolini and others to rise to power, along with leaders I'd put at the other end of the spectrum, like FDR. The point is clear--that we haven't coped well with need historically, and what lies ahead could tear countries apart.
Six Degrees
This chapter is filled with nightmare scenarios, from methane clouds released from their subsea continental shelves to the Gulf Stream shutting down, creating an anoxic environment that would kill most ocean life. Despite these nightmares, Lynas assumes that humanity will survive, since, unlike other earlier mass extinctions, we possess the capacity to store food for years, and will probably do so. That doesn't mean that the majority of the human family will suffer, it just means that some people will find a way to survive, on this altered Earth.
The final chapters of the book are about things we can do to make a change, but Lynas is necessarily pessimistic about our chances. He feels we may have progressed past the tipping point already, and that what we do now might be too late for the icecaps, the Amazon, and other fragile environments. That said, in order for life to continue, it's best that we switch from fossil fuels to other alternatives. He doesn't like most of the alternatives currently available, since many of them (ethanol and other biofuels, especially) use as much energy in production as they save by using them as a gasoline substitute. Wind and solar power have potential, but we need to start now if we're going to make an effective change.
I've read similar books to this, but enjoyed the organization and language that Lynas uses. He keeps the science at a lay level, but includes copious notes if your scientific language is up to it. He explains why detractors hate the idea of "Global Warming," and throws them a bone or two. He uses concrete examples from around the world, which makes the book more appealing and more usable. Of course, all of these scenarios depend on a number of factors, and hopefully we can dodge some of these consequences. At some point, the Piper will have to be paid...and it's not going to be pretty.
The National Geographic Channel has also turned "Six Degrees" into a television special, "Six Degrees Can Change the World." See more information on the television program at http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/episode/six-degrees-could-change-the-world-3188/Overview#tab-Overview
National Geographic also sponsors The Green Guide http://www.thegreenguide.com/ , with tips on how to save energy, save money, and save the world.
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